Yesterday I took the opportunity to register for an online webinar hosted by the chief executive of the Royal Aeronautical Society, Sir Brian Burridge and the NASA Aeronautics Associate Administrator, Bob Pearce. The topic of the webinar was Aeronautic research in a post Covid-19 world. Despite a few technical glitches that saw Bob Pearce drop out a few times, the conversation worked well and covered a range of different topics.
The webinar started off on the subject of decarbonisation. This was arguably the most compelling part of the discussion – with Pearce and Burridge discussing some aspects linked to configuration and some to energy sources. Pearce mentioned that NASA investigation of electric and hybrid-electric propulsion in the longer term is considering superconducters as a means of storage. This is interesting, as current lithium batteries present a major challenge both in terms of power density and cooling requirements. In particular, the thermal cascade failure risk is a major challenge for a safe aircraft.
There was some discussion around alternate propulsion sources – in particular hydrogen but also synthetic fuels developed using carbon capture technologies. The conclusion seemed to be that it is still unclear which technology will emerge as the frontrunner for a long term replacement to kerosene and therefore researchers must hedge their bets and continue investigating all of them.
Discussion around configuration was limited – high aspect ration truss-braced wings and blended wing bodies were the main topics covered. However, there was little discussion around the specific challenges of integrating new fuel sources, for example the cooling and heat exchange requirements of electric propulsion, or the storage tanks that might be required for hydrogen.
More surprisingly, a significant portion of the discussion revolved around urban air mobility and supersonic research. Urban air mobility has undoubtedly been one of the largest growth areas in aerospace research, with multiple start-ups developing eVTOLs. Prior to Covid-19, supersonic research was resurgent in the USA, with the NASA X-59 QueSST demonstrator in development and companies such as BOOM and Aerion working on aircraft concepts.
Yet even before the pandemic, these applications, whilst glamorous and exciting – had the hint of being toys for the rich.
Concorde was undoubtedly a magnificent technical achievement. In addition, the transnational way of working set the scene for the future of the European aerospace industry before the genesis of Airbus.
However as a commercial product it was an abject failure. The orders were all cancelled before it entered service – with only state-owned flag carriers taking ownership of the production aircraft – and they didn’t pay for them. (Well, BA paid a pound for them….) There is a popular narrative in the UK that this was down to nefarious Americans objecting to overland sonic booms to kill an aircraft they hadn’t been able to create. Whilst there might be elements of truth to this – the reality is that Boeing and the US industry had understood better than the UK and France where the future of the commercial aerospace industry lay. It wasn’t in selling a luxury lifestyle to the fabulously wealthy, with a product that was used principally by celebrities, some business travellers and royalty. Instead it was in creating a safe, accessible means for ordinary people to travel the world. That was essentially what drove the success of the 707 and later the 747.
In 2020, aviation ground almost to a halt in the face of the pandemic. It it likely that as people start to travel again, it will be the wealthy and powerful that begin travelling first. Yet ultimately, the success of the industry will be dependent on ordinary people flying again. There may very well be a case for a small supersonic transport to cater to business travellers for ultra long haul routes – but the major growth areas for aerospace in the next twenty years are still expected to be Asia-Pacific, followed by South America and Africa. That still requires a product that is safe, cheap and reliable to operate.
Urban air mobility is a different kind of challenge. As lockdowns ease, people are being discouraged from using public transport for commuting for fear of a second peak. To stimulate growth and to prevent emissions from simply ramping back up to their pre-pandemic levels, governments are offering incentives to switch to electric cars. In this environment, the idea of personal electric air vehicles could be appealing. Yet the means of certifying and regulating them are still at the stage of draft guidelines from the authorities.
Bob Pearce spoke intriguingly of interest from the Department of Defense and in work NASA was doing on public acceptance and airspace integration. These will undoubtedly be useful and interesting trials. Yet it’s difficult to envisage these becoming commonplace in areas with high population density any time soon.
Both speakers were clearly passionate about the need to inspire a new generation of engineers and to ensure that we innovate both to survive and to attract new talent. The major theme of decarbonisation will undoubtedly be one that is essential for the long term survival of commercial aerospace.
Yet I would have liked to see more recognition of areas of research that might slow down or see major cuts. Also, discussion around how to address that and keep our knowledge base growing. There was some skirting of this, with discussions around automation and multiphysics models – but not a clear message on how different the post Covid-19 research landscape will look.